Weekend Nor'easter Could Bring Up to 10 Inches of Snow to Long Island

A powerful nor’easter approaching the region this weekend threatens to dump significant snowfall across Long Island, with meteorologists warning residents to prepare for accumulations that could reach double digits in some areas.

The National Weather Service expects the storm to begin impacting the area Sunday morning, according to meteorologist James Tomasini. While uncertainty remains about the storm’s exact path, forecasters express high confidence that a strong, offshore low pressure system will affect the region.

“There’s high confidence in there being a strong, offshore low pressure system, but there’s still a little bit of a question on how close that’s going to track to our area,” Tomasini said Friday morning.

Current projections show snowfall around 4 inches for most areas, according to Tomasini. However, the forecast includes a one in 10 chance of accumulation amounts reaching up to 10 inches on the high end. If the storm tracks further off the coast, the region may only receive a trace of snow.

Eastern Long Island faces the potential for heavier accumulations compared to western areas. Bill Deger, a senior meteorologist with AccuWeather, considers 3-6 inches a possibility for eastern Long Island residents, while calling 1-3 inches a “good bet” for the broader New York City area.

The storm’s timing will create challenging conditions for Monday morning commuters. Snow will begin falling Sunday morning before intensifying during evening hours and continuing into Monday morning, according to Deger.

Surface temperatures will play a crucial role in determining final snowfall totals. Saturday’s temperatures in the upper 40s will initially prevent snow from accumulating effectively, according to Deger.

“It’s not till we get to late in the day and at night where we see those 1 to 3 inches really accumulate. And major roads may be fine until after dark on Sunday because of how high those temperatures will be,” Deger explained.

The overnight hours into early Monday morning present the greatest concern for dangerous travel conditions. Roads could be “most treacherous” during this period, according to Deger.

The National Weather Service forecasts a daily high around 37 degrees Sunday with a low near 32 degrees.

Beyond snowfall, the storm will bring additional hazards to the region. Sustained winds around 20-25 mph with gusts up to 30-35 mph are expected, according to Tomasini.

Coastal areas face flooding risks during the Sunday night high tide period. The National Weather Service anticipates widespread minor to locally-moderate coastal flooding, according to Tomasini.

The storm’s ultimate impact depends heavily on its track. An upper-level atmospheric component approaching from the west could push the storm further east more quickly, potentially reducing snowfall totals to the lower end of projections.

“There is not only the area of low pressure that will be off to our south and east, but there’s kind of a component in the upper level in the atmosphere but coming in from the west that could act to kick this storm further east quicker and if that happens, yeah, we’ll probably end up on the lower range of our 1-3 inch forecast,” Deger said.

Conversely, if the storm tracks closer to the coast, residents could face significant snowfall accumulations.

Both meteorologists emphasized that snowfall amounts remain subject to change based on the storm’s ultimate path. The coastal storm’s proximity to Long Island will determine whether the region experiences minimal snow or potentially crippling accumulations.

Residents should monitor updated forecasts throughout the weekend as meteorologists refine their predictions. Those with Monday morning travel plans should prepare for potentially hazardous conditions and consider alternative arrangements.